How Much Have Harley-Davidson’s Shipments Fallen Since 2014?

Since 2014 Harley-Davidson‘s (NYSE: HOG) shipments have fallen from 270.7K in 2014 to 228.7K in 2018 which represents a total fall of 15.5%. The primary reasons are a shrinking market for their heavy weight bikes and a global slowdown.

Please refer to the Trefis interactive dashboard – Why Are Harley-Davidson’s Shipments Falling? – to understand the annual change in Harley-Davidson’s shipments.


What Happened?
Total Shipments:

Harley-Davidson’s Total Worldwide Shipments have been falling continuously since 2014.
Annual Shipments have fallen from 270.7K in 2014 to 228.7K in 2018 which represents a total fall of 15.5%.
Trefis estimates a further 8% reduction and Total shipments to be around 210.4K in 2019.
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US Shipments:

Harley-Davidson’s US Shipments have been falling continuously since 2014.
Annual Shipments have fallen from 174K in 2014 to 132.4K in 2018 which represents a total fall of 23.9%.
Trefis estimates a further 9% reduction and US shipments to be around 120.5K in 2019.
International Shipments:

International shipments have fluctuated but in 2018 were quite similar to the 2014 numbers and thus flattish over the period.
Trefis estimates a 6.6% reduction in 2019 and International shipments to be around 89.9K.
Why?

U.S. Heavyweight Motorcycle shipments account for almost 60% of the company’s overall motorcycle sales (in 2018), making it the largest single geographic market for Harley-Davidson. Over the past few years, overall heavyweight motorcycle sales have declined significantly in the U.S. The fall is attributed to a shrinking market in the country and an overall global auto slowdown.
International shipments have been flattish over the period. In 2019 the fall is expected primarily due the global market slowdown.
So What?

A continuously falling sales volume doesn’t bode well for Harley-Davidson. The company announced steps to curb the fall by introducing a “More roads to Harley-Davidson” plan in 2019. The plan’s strategic objectives through 2027 are to: build 2 million new riders in the U.S., grow international business to 50% of annual volume, launch 100 new high impact motorcycles, and do so profitably and sustainably.
The company is also working on exploiting the EV market to increase its market penetration. In November, 2018, the company’s first electric Harley-Davidson was debuted at the Milan Motorcycle Show.
The positive here is that the company has acknowledged its difficult times and has set up plans to combat this.

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